Scenarios
What If Inflation Goes Down Deflation Scenario
Sometimes prices slow down or even fall in a category. This page shows how to model a lower inflation or deflation scenario in your personal inflation basket without treating it like a prediction.
Published: December 30, 2025 · Updated: December 30, 2025 · By FinToolSuite Editorial
Disclaimer
- Educational purposes only, not financial advice.
- Examples are illustrative and simplified.
- Results depend on your inputs and assumptions and are not guaranteed.
- This page does not predict inflation or deflation.
- See the Privacy Policy for handling details.
Open the personal inflation basket calculator
Set low or mixed assumptions and compare them without guessing one number.
Quick answers: deflation scenario personal inflation basket
- Lower assumptions reduce the projected future cost.
- A basket can have mixed category moves at the same time.
- Ranges and scenarios are safer than one forecast.
- Treat results as illustrative, not guaranteed.
Inflation down vs deflation
Lower inflation means prices still rise, just slower. Deflation means a category price level falls on average. Both can happen in different categories at once.
Why categories can move differently
Competition or technology can push some prices down, while contracts or rents can stay sticky. Your weight for each category decides how much the change matters in your basket.
Review weights in the calculator or see category weights explained.
Illustrative example basket
| Category | Monthly spend | Scenario A (low positive) | Scenario B (one negative) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Housing | $1,200 | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| Groceries | $600 | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| Transport | $300 | 1.0% | -0.5% |
| Utilities | $200 | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Subscriptions | $100 | 1.0% | 0.5% |
Illustrative only; adjust to match your own bills.
What changes in the projection
| Scenario | Personal inflation (rough) | What happens to the projection line |
|---|---|---|
| Scenario A (low positive) | ~1.6% | Line slopes up gently over time. |
| Scenario B (one negative) | ~1.2% | Line rises more slowly; the gap vs baseline narrows. |
See the projection table explainer to understand the year columns.
How to model it in the tool
- Build your base basket with today’s spends.
- Save a scenario called Base.
- Copy it and adjust assumptions down.
- Save a scenario called Low inflation.
- Optionally set one category slightly negative for a Mixed case.
- Compare scenarios and export if needed.
Use ranges, not one guess, and check weights before changing assumptions.
Safety notes
- This is not a forecast.
- Use ranges when unsure.
- Check that assumptions match your own bills, not headlines.
- Update when your spending pattern changes.
- See the Privacy Policy for handling details.
FAQ preview
Can inflation be negative? Yes, a category can fall on average, but it can change again.
Should I use a deflation assumption? Only if it matches your bills; otherwise use low ranges.
Why does my basket still rise if one category falls? Other categories may carry more weight and stay positive.
Do weights matter more than assumptions? Large weights amplify assumptions, so review them first.
How often should I update assumptions? When bills change or a few times a year.
Can I compare scenarios? Yes. Save Base, Low, and Mixed; compare rates and projections.
Is this financial advice? No. It is educational and depends on your inputs.
Try the personal inflation basket calculator
Test low, mixed, and deflation scenarios, then compare projection tables.