Behavior & timing
Waiting for a Market Crash: The Opportunity Cost (Explained)
Trying to time a “perfect moment” can mean waiting. Waiting can reduce compounding time in a model, but markets are uncertain. Here’s how to see the trade-off safely.
Published: December 22, 2025 · Updated: December 22, 2025 · By FinToolSuite Editorial
Test timing in the calculator
Compare start-now vs start-later with your own assumptions.
Disclaimer
Educational purposes only; not financial advice. Examples are illustrative; real returns vary and investments can go down as well as up. No one can predict market moves reliably; this page does not provide market timing advice. Fees, taxes, inflation, and provider rules vary.
Quick answer
Waiting might work—or it might mean missing time. Because the future is unknown, a safer approach is to test scenarios instead of assuming one outcome.
See cost of delay examplesWhy people wait for a “perfect moment”
- Fear of buying before a drop.
- Wanting certainty that a crash already happened.
- Headline-driven decisions.
The opportunity cost idea
If you wait, you reduce time for potential growth in a model. The Cost of Delay Calculator estimates that timing gap under your assumptions.
Open the calculatorImportant risk note
Markets can decline and be volatile. Any assumption is uncertain. Results are not guarantees. See return assumption tips.
Scenario examples (illustrative)
Scenario A: Wait 6 months
- £10,000, 5% (illustrative), horizon 15 years, delay 6 months.
- Compare start now vs start after 6 months; the delayed path has fewer compounding periods.
Scenario B: Wait 12 months
- Same inputs, delay 12 months.
- The gap grows with a longer delay.
Scenario C: Rate sensitivity
- Delay 12 months; compare 3% vs 7% (illustrative) to see how assumptions change the gap.
More ready-made cases: cost of delay examples.
A more realistic framing
You can’t know in advance whether waiting helps. The aim is to see “what does waiting cost under my assumptions?” Try low/base/high assumptions to get a range.
Practical scenario checklist
- Keep all inputs the same except the delay.
- Compare 6 vs 12 vs 24 months.
- Save scenarios and view side-by-side.
- Sanity-check assumptions (try low/base/high).
FAQ
Is waiting for a crash a good idea?
It’s uncertain. Waiting can reduce compounding time; timing a crash reliably is difficult.
Can anyone predict market crashes?
No one can predict reliably. Headlines aren’t a timing guarantee.
What is the opportunity cost of waiting?
The estimated gap between start-now and start-later under the same assumptions.
How much does waiting 6–12 months matter?
It depends on rate, horizon, and amount. Run both cases in the calculator to see the difference.
What return assumption should I use?
Use illustrative ranges and compare. See return assumption tips for more.
Should I run multiple scenarios?
Yes—try low/base/high and different delays to see sensitivity.
Can markets go down even if I start now?
Yes. Starting now doesn’t remove risk; returns can be volatile.
Are calculator results guaranteed?
No. They are estimates based on your inputs; real outcomes vary.
Final CTA
Run three scenarios: start now, start in 6 months, start in 12 months. Compare the timing gap side-by-side.